A bit of fun - freerunner and the wisdom of crowds
jameswillmer at googlemail.com
Tue Apr 15 21:30:45 CEST 2008
[reviving the long forgotten Feb 8 post....
So, with Freerunner now quite close to release what are the results?
You can see the details at http://openmoko.hobby-site.com/
1) How many people voted/participated : 700 with 660 indicating intent to
2) What is the median vote for the number of Freerunners that will be bought
in the first 2 months after launch? The answer is 4000 and has been
amazingly stable at that number from nearly the start
3) Did this "bit of fun" qualify as a true "wisdom of crowds" answer.
Well, maybe. The criteria for a true "wisdom of crowds" scenario include
the guesses all being independent (see wikipedia). Due to the excellent
website that Tim Kersten made those interested enough could go in and see
the results of others guesses BEFORE making their own guess. This may
have polluted the answer somewhat but I still reckon most people will have
voted before looking at the other guesses...
4) Will Openmoko/Trisoft/US distrib tell us the real answer in due course?
Wait and see....
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