Free Runner price vs iphone 3G price - Things clear - what market

[Kalle Happonen]

Carsten Haitzler (The Rasterman) wrote:
> On Wed, 11 Jun 2008 00:16:40 +0000 "Jorge ." <sphairos at hotmail.com> babbled:
>
>   
>> Robert Taylor wrote:
>>     
>>> On the new Iphones, you HAVETO get a 2 year contract.  
>>> If you decide to quit you will pay a fee that will total up greater than 
>>> the $600 the phone is worth.
>>>       
>> The first iPhone was released june 29/2007 and the first hacked that allow
>> you to use it with any operator was announced on july 9/2007. It will happen
>> again and unlocked iPhones 3G will be available, it does not matter if the
>> first bunch are stolen, second hand or refurbished, it short time everyone
>> will be able to buy an iPhone 3G without contract for almost the same price
>> than it contract. Then we will be able to compare unsubsidized iphones with
>> moko. until that moment lets end the flame :-) but if I am right the iPhone
>> will be cheaper even unsubsidized. (although i would buy a moko anyway)
>>     
>
> not so simple. i think he business plan is changing because before this
> happened with the 1st iphone. people could buy without contract. it was assumed
> that the phone lock would force people to get a contract anyway and apple bore
> the risk by losing out on their cut of the carrier's revenue (at&t). so they
> sold it at $399 or $499 etc. and din't get any money from at&t after that.
>
> now it changes with the 3g iphone. you must sign up when you buy. sure - you
> can now take that phone, unlock it, re-sell it, but you are stuck with a
> contract you must keep paying for... with no phone to use on that contract
> unless you buy another phone - outright. there will be contract termination
> clauses if you want to cancel then and this will help cover the subsidy - of
> not completely cover it and then some.
>   
This is how I've understood it too, so this means there would be no 
"cheap" unlocked iPhones on the market in any significant volume. But 
the next thing to consider is what market/audience is the main target of 
OM. It seems some places (US) you'll end up to pay the same for the 
contract with or without a subsidised phone, which makes OM pricey 
compared to other options.

In many places in europe however you can get much cheaper contracts 
without an included phone. In Finland (which is a best case scenario, 
granted) for example, I would never touch a phone+subscription combo, 
partly thanks to a good legislation. So in many (most?) countries in 
europe OM + a contract could be significantly cheaper than iPhone.

I can't say about the asian market, but I think the imporant thing to 
consider where the most phones are expected to be sold. Another thing to 
consider is the target audience of GTA02. Are people who consider 
getting GTA02 also considering iPhone, or is it more of a geek/hacker 
(GTA02) - "ooh look at me, I'm so trendy" (iPhone) split, in which case 
the problem isn't a big deal to begin with.


> sure - some (a very few) phones will somehow be smuggled from the factory or
> from shipments before they get to an apple or at&t or other carrier store, and
> some may be sold "under the counter" without contract - but i guarantee that
> that likely is a business losing proposition for anyone as they get a rebate
> once they sign you on a contract. selling without a contract will mean hey have
> to jack up the price to cover the lost rebate money.
>
> as such - legal, legitimate and easy to get 3g iphones WITHOUT contract are
> going to be much more than $199.
>
>   
>>>> furthermore the freedom, there is a war for the smartphones market and a
>>>> freephone have to be competitive  in price, not only in quality and
>>>> philosophy. 
>>>>         
>>>>> This is only true if you do what you are insisting on doing, comparing 
>>>>>           
>>> things that are not of equal value. While it is fine for consumers to 
>>> be ignorant of these facts and actually think your argument is valid, 
>>> it's not correct on this thread as you are clearly educated and 
>>> understand the reality of the situation.
>>>       
>> not equal value? Moko, iPhone, iRiver, Blackberry... we are talking about
>> smartphones, and money is money. If you buy an orange, and apple or a pinable
>> you pay with money!! every fruit have advantages and disadvantages, but you
>> pay anyway
>>
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